Daily edition

Bitcoin cycle readout: 10 November 2026

Bitcoin is 12.9% above its power-law fair value of $66,477 in a late bear phase (10 November 2026).

• As of 10 November 2026, Bitcoin traded near $75,021.
• Bitcoin's power-law fair value (the midline of the long-run power-law fit) was $66,477, so price sat 12.9% above it.
• The power-law band ran from a floor of $29,694 to a ceiling of $148,822.
• The four-year cycle phase read Late Bear, after a cycle top of $124,824 on 6 October 2025 (398 days earlier, counted as of 8 November 2026).
• The lowest close since that top was $58,525 on 30 June 2026.
• Key levels: realized price (the average on-chain cost basis) $53,945; 200-week moving average $67,639; 50-week moving average $75,577; 200-day moving average $73,166.
• The HLB cycle composite scored 32/100 (late bear, disagreement band 17–46) as of 8 November 2026. It is research context, not a probability or a trade signal.
• The Crypto Fear & Greed Index read 32 (Fear).
• At block 975,239, the next halving (block 1,050,000) was 74,761 blocks away, roughly 519 days.

This page is a fixed record of the readout for 10 November 2026. The live readout updates daily.