Daily edition

Bitcoin cycle readout: 9 November 2026

Bitcoin is 13.1% above its power-law fair value of $66,417 in a late bear phase (9 November 2026).

• As of 9 November 2026, Bitcoin traded near $75,129.
• Bitcoin's power-law fair value (the midline of the long-run power-law fit) was $66,417, so price sat 13.1% above it.
• The power-law band ran from a floor of $29,668 to a ceiling of $148,690.
• The four-year cycle phase read Late Bear, after a cycle top of $124,824 on 6 October 2025 (397 days earlier, counted as of 7 November 2026).
• The lowest close since that top was $58,525 on 30 June 2026.
• Key levels: realized price (the average on-chain cost basis) $53,951; 200-week moving average $67,639; 50-week moving average $75,577; 200-day moving average $73,183.
• The HLB cycle composite scored 32/100 (late bear, disagreement band 18–47) as of 7 November 2026. It is research context, not a probability or a trade signal.
• The Crypto Fear & Greed Index read 29 (Fear).
• At block 975,118, the next halving (block 1,050,000) was 74,882 blocks away, roughly 520 days.

This page is a fixed record of the readout for 9 November 2026. The live readout updates daily.