Daily edition

Bitcoin cycle readout: 5 November 2026

Bitcoin is 21.9% above its power-law fair value of $66,181 in a late bear phase (5 November 2026).

• As of 5 November 2026, Bitcoin traded near $80,685.
• Bitcoin's power-law fair value (the midline of the long-run power-law fit) was $66,181, so price sat 21.9% above it.
• The power-law band ran from a floor of $29,562 to a ceiling of $148,162.
• The four-year cycle phase read Late Bear, after a cycle top of $124,824 on 6 October 2025 (393 days earlier, counted as of 3 November 2026).
• The lowest close since that top was $58,525 on 30 June 2026.
• Key levels: realized price (the average on-chain cost basis) $53,985; 200-week moving average $67,344; 50-week moving average $75,760; 200-day moving average $73,152.
• The HLB cycle composite scored 30/100 (late bear, disagreement band 15–45) as of 3 November 2026. It is research context, not a probability or a trade signal.
• The Crypto Fear & Greed Index read 50 (Neutral).
• At block 974,612, the next halving (block 1,050,000) was 75,388 blocks away, roughly 524 days.

This page is a fixed record of the readout for 5 November 2026. The live readout updates daily.