Daily edition

Bitcoin cycle readout: 3 November 2026

Bitcoin is 16.6% above its power-law fair value of $66,064 in a late bear phase (3 November 2026).

• As of 3 November 2026, Bitcoin traded near $77,028.
• Bitcoin's power-law fair value (the midline of the long-run power-law fit) was $66,064, so price sat 16.6% above it.
• The power-law band ran from a floor of $29,510 to a ceiling of $147,898.
• The four-year cycle phase read Late Bear, after a cycle top of $124,824 on 6 October 2025 (391 days earlier, counted as of 1 November 2026).
• The lowest close since that top was $58,525 on 30 June 2026.
• Key levels: realized price (the average on-chain cost basis) $54,005; 200-week moving average $67,344; 50-week moving average $75,760; 200-day moving average $73,149.
• The HLB cycle composite scored 31/100 (late bear, disagreement band 16–45) as of 1 November 2026. It is research context, not a probability or a trade signal.
• The Crypto Fear & Greed Index read 26 (Fear).
• At block 974,328, the next halving (block 1,050,000) was 75,672 blocks away, roughly 526 days.

This page is a fixed record of the readout for 3 November 2026. The live readout updates daily.